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December 22, 2005
Peak oil podcast
Another interesting community radio podcast is the Dec. 1 recording of Professor Ken Deffeyes speaking about his prediction for world peak oil production. Deffeyes, a geologist, examines production trends contending, "The methods which M. King Hubbert used to predict the peak of United States oil production can now be applied to world production." (Source is the writeup at Radio4All.net, not perhaps Deffeyes exact words.) It seems Hubbert managed with his methods to predict the peak in US oil production years before it happened in the early 70s. Deffeyes is predicting the peak in world production happens on Thanksgiving Day, 2005 +- 3 weeks.
The most interesting part of Deffeyes's talk comes in the suggestions he offers for softening the impact of a peak in production. He's much more engineer than idealist, looking first to technologies like high-mileage diesel engines, coal gas, and fission-based nuclear energy sources rather than hydrogen fuel cells, solar, nuclear fusion, or drastic lifestyle changes that keep us from moving around. Furthermore, he suggests plausible ways for presently rich oil companies, who because production is peaking don't want to sink all their resources into new exploration and drilling, to get in early on these markets that will grow and should grow as alternatives to oil. His seem like ideas that fit current conditions and systems. Maybe some of them will help stave off serious recession and worse.
An interesting observation Professor Deffeyes makes in response to one of the audience questions is that combination fission/fusion reactors are probably possible today. His take on pure fusion sounded like the way we look at real-time voice translation software. It's been just around the corner for about 50 years. Perhaps an engineering compromise in that area would be a good one.
Posted by Mark at December 22, 2005 07:49 AM
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Comments
When we talked to a solar contractor here on Kauai, he said all the oil/energy companies were buying the solar cell production and stagnating output. Either that or it was a good story to inflate his prices and make you buy sooner. No cheap renewable energy for the masses--one way or another the powers that be will make you pay.
Posted by: Andy at December 22, 2005 10:22 AM
Energy fans might find this interesting: a new techno-thriller novel about the American nuclear power industry. Written by a longtime nuclear engineer, it provides an entertaining and accurate portrait of a nuclear power plant and how an accident might be handled. “Rad Decision” is at RadDecision.blogspot.com, at no cost to readers.
Posted by: James Aach at December 22, 2005 06:58 PM